Aceson Shaneen market
During the process of building the Aceson program, the DC and DJC Shaneen airliner designs were selected to fit into the markets for the highest sales, to give maximum assurance of returns to Aceson Corporate Bond buyers.
In 2011, the waiting list for airliners in the Aceson Shaneen category was just over 5,300 airliners. Last year this grew by 25% to 6,700, thanks to the new version of the Boeing 737 being offered for sale.
With the rapid growth of this sector - around 5% per year, the sales of the new Shaneen - the first new aircraft in the category for over a quarter of a century - should be a success with airlines all over the world.
What is interesting to note is the growth in the commercial aviation industry only slowed slightly during the year of the Global Financial Crisis, showing how demand continues independently and ahead of the share market and global economy. This demand is due to peoples need to travel, a factor making Aceson Corporate Bond purchases one of the safest investments in the world.
Another consideration is airliner deliveries are occurring at a rate much slower to production, around 40% for Boeing and 30% for Airbus. While this secures these companies future, the airline industry is subjected to aging fleets of airliners developed up to 51 years ago.
Markets are not just to replace every 125-200 seat airliner in the west. The most rapid growth sector in aviation is in Asia (both China and South-East Asia) and the sub-continent (India). Russia and Africa are also potentially new large markets set to increase orders within the next ten years.
2012 total aircraft backorder
2012 total deliveries
2012 total orders
Airbus A-320 family 455
2012 back order
Represents a 7.1 year wait for a Boeing 737 airliner at 415 aircraft per yearAirbus A-320 family 3,710 (18% increase in 8 months)
Represents an 8.1 year wait for an A-320 airliner at 455 aircraft per year
Production rate gives a 7.6 year average wait to airlines for new order delivery for an airliner of 125-200 seat capacity. Airlines are simply forced to use exisiting, aging aircraft, creating a bubble of older aircraft.
A 7.6 year wait for a new airliner is a one year increase in the wait time in the 8 months since the last Aceson prospectus review was conducted.
Historical (former) statistics:
2011 aircraft backorder
Airbus A-320 family 421
Airbus A-320 family 1348
2011 aircraft waiting lists for 100-200 sized passenger jets
Airbus 3132 all models A318-A321 family (including 2530 A-320) (divided by 421 2011 deliveries = 7.4 years wait until delivery)
2010 aircraft production: deliveries
2010 aircraft orders
Shaneen4 and Shaneen5 production estimated to commence in 4 years
Shaneen production rate: standard 6 hour shift*.
DJC series 200**
*Both production rates can increase significantly by employing more shifts
**Target production rate is likely to be actually set at 300 per year - per 6 hour shift - to compensate for any failures to yield 200 airlines per year
DC and DJC series size category: 125-200 seat airliners:
Market: over 12,000 aircraft (2012) Growing at 5% per annum
(Based upon deliveries of 8,800 B-737 family airliners + 7,922 A-318-A-321 family airliners (16,722) minus retired/obsolete airliners and airframe losses)***
***Note demand for airliners may be being artificially being kept lower due to the long waiting lists for airliners
Compounded growth at 5% per annum
2017 (5 years at 5% growth of 12,000) 15,315
2022 (10 years at 5% growth of 12,000) 19,546
2027 (15 years at 5% growth of 12,000) 24,947
Projected market in 2027 (15 years): up to 25,000 120-200 seat airliners
Sales estimates in comparison to the total market
3.3% of 12,000
2.61% of 15,315
2% of 20,000
1.6% of 25,000.