Briggs Aerospace Technologies
 

Aceson Shaneen market 

During the process of building the Aceson program, the DC and DJC Shaneen airliner designs were selected to fit into the markets for the highest sales, to give maximum assurance of returns to Aceson Corporate Bond buyers.

In 2011, the waiting list for airliners in the Aceson Shaneen category was just over 5,300 airliners. Last year this grew by 25% to 6,700, thanks to the new version of the Boeing 737 being offered for sale.

With the rapid growth of this sector - around 5% per year, the sales of the new Shaneen - the first new aircraft in the category for over a quarter of a century - should be a success with airlines all over the world. 

What is interesting to note is the growth in the commercial aviation industry only slowed slightly during the year of the Global Financial Crisis, showing how demand continues independently and ahead of the share market and global economy. This demand is due to peoples need to travel, a factor making Aceson Corporate Bond purchases one of the safest investments in the world.

Another consideration is airliner deliveries are occurring at a rate much slower to production, around 40% for Boeing and 30% for Airbus. While this secures these companies future, the airline industry is subjected to aging fleets of airliners developed up to 51 years ago.

Markets are not just to replace every 125-200 seat airliner in the west. The most rapid growth sector in aviation is in Asia (both China and South-East Asia) and the sub-continent (India). Russia and Africa are also potentially new large markets set to increase orders within the next ten years. 

2012

2012 total aircraft backorder
Boeing    4373

Airbus    4628

2012 total deliveries
Boeing   601

Airbus    588

2012 total orders
Boeing  737 family    1,201

Airbus  A-320 family   833

2012 deliveries
Boeing 737 family       415

Airbus A-320 family    455

2012 back order
Boeing  737 family   3,020     (38% increase in the last 8 months)   

Represents a 7.1 year wait for a Boeing 737 airliner at 415 aircraft per year

Airbus   A-320 family   3,710     (18% increase in 8 months)

Represents an 8.1 year wait for an A-320 airliner at 455 aircraft per year

Production rate gives a 7.6 year average wait to airlines for new order delivery for an airliner of 125-200 seat capacity. Airlines are simply forced to use exisiting, aging aircraft, creating a bubble of older aircraft.

A 7.6 year wait for a new airliner is a one year increase in the wait time in the 8 months since the last Aceson prospectus review was conducted.

Historical (former) statistics:

2011 aircraft backorder
Boeing     3443

Airbus      3553

2011 deliveries
Boeing 737 family 372

Airbus A-320 family 421

2011 orders
Boeing  737 family   551

Airbus   A-320 family   1348

2011 aircraft waiting lists for 100-200 sized passenger jets
Boeing     2186 all models of B737   (divided by 372 2011 deliveries = 5.8 years until delivery)

Airbus      3132 all models A318-A321 family (including 2530 A-320) (divided by 421 2011 deliveries = 7.4 years wait until delivery)

2010 aircraft production: deliveries
Boeing 462

Airbus 510

2010 aircraft orders
Boeing 530

Airbus 574

Shaneen4 and Shaneen5 production estimated to commence in 4 years

Shaneen production rate: standard 6 hour shift*.

DC-series 200**

DJC series 200**

*Both production rates can increase significantly by employing more shifts

**Target production rate is likely to be actually set at 300 per year - per 6 hour shift - to compensate for any failures to yield 200 airlines per year

DC and DJC series size category: 125-200 seat airliners:

Market: over 12,000 aircraft (2012) Growing at 5% per annum

(Based upon deliveries of 8,800 B-737 family airliners + 7,922 A-318-A-321 family airliners (16,722) minus retired/obsolete airliners and airframe losses)***

***Note demand for airliners may be being artificially being kept lower due to the long waiting lists for airliners

Compounded growth at 5% per annum

2017 (5 years at 5% growth of 12,000) 15,315

2022 (10 years at 5% growth of 12,000) 19,546

2027 (15 years at 5% growth of 12,000) 24,947

Projected market in 2027 (15 years): up to 25,000 120-200 seat airliners

Sales estimates in comparison to the total market
To show the conservative nature of the Shaneen sales figures: 400 airliners (base annual sales estimates for DC and DJC Shaneen production) represents -

3.3% of 12,000

2.61% of 15,315

 2% of 20,000

1.6% of 25,000.


 
  ©2013 Briggs.